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Scottish Scenarios

Scottish scenarios
Blog, Strategy Consulting

Scottish Scenarios

Recent radio sound bytes indicate that there are quite a few confused Scots up north. The problem is information, or lack thereof. Questions are being asked in shops, on sidewalks and watering holes about many ‘what ifs’ should Scotland join the USA, renowned as the Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave. Warding off the British in the polls as opposed to the battlefields. It seems that Alex Salmond’s Independence White Paper doesn’t help voters much. So what now?

There are many reasons and resources to inspire a nation to push for independence and many too, to make a coherent argument why Scotland should stay attached with a United Kingdom. Heated discussions are the very least onlookers expect prior to voting day. Especially so, if the message from the streets is that insufficient information is available as to the details of what the plausible outcomes could look like. There is nothing worse than being made a fool of, by believing political rhetoric, voting for our intellectual, trustworthy and charismatic heroes – only to be told by them later that there are now a heap of unintended consequences that they were not aware of and the future is now bleak.


It is high time that the appropriate decision-making information is made available in simple terms, so that the remaining months may be put to good use to discuss, dispute, refute and decide on informed positions. Mistakes and changes will be both costly and regrettable. If meaningful information remains scarce, scenario discussions are a decent alternative. If nothing else, you will have a few plausible stories that could play out in the future. This is valuable, especially since the stories are easily shared.

What are the two driving forces that will affect the future success or failure of an independent Scotland? For the sake of illustration not accuracy, let’s take these two examples:
Poor Infrastructure (Public service & Business) versus Good Infrastructure.
Financial Dependence versus Financial Independence.

Using these as driving forces to create some Scenarios for Scotland, an agenda for a debate could surround:

Scottish scenarios

Any number of scenarios or driving forces may be used. Its the responsibility of the leaders in the process to make the appropriate information available. Without which, trust, wisdom and coherence will be tough to find amongst those expected to make an important decision. Unless, cynically that is precisely the outcome preferred by the political leaders. Leaving voters with the choice as to vote or not, rather than for whom or what to vote for.

Let the informed debate begin in earnest.

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